Autor Tópico: Método para sacar Bónus de Cavalos "Dinheiro de Volta/Money Back"  (Lida 891 vezes)

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Vegeta83

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Olá Amigos

Sou novo aqui no forum e tenho gostado do Espírito de entreajuda.  :parabens:

Esta a minha Pequena Contribuição  ;)

Descobri uma Técnica, para sacar sacar Bónus de Cavalos "Dinheiro de Volta/Money Back".
Existem cada vez mais Casas a Oferecer este Bónus.  :)
Exemplo: http://www.bet 365.com/extra/pt/promotions/horse-racing/
O stress é que a técnica está a Inglés.  :(
Assim torna-se difícil, para pessoas com Fraco Inglês perceber como Funciona!
Se algum Moderador/Membro achar Interessante Traduzir e Por ao Serviço do Pessoal.
Aqui Fica a técnica em Inglês:



"Bet 365 4/1 horse racing offer

This is an excellent offer from Bet 365 but it must be approached with caution. Make sure you understand exactly what to do before doing the offer. Open the spreadsheet that is included and can be
Downloaded Here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/01uf809xi9rnmu5/365.zip

First of all you will need a Bet 365 account.

http://www.bet 365.com/extra/pt/promotions/horse-racing/
 
If you already have an account you can use your current account to do this offer, it is open to new and old customers.
 
T&Cs
The only races you can place these are listed here:
http://www.bet 365.com/extra/pt/promotions/horse-racing/channel4-to-1-offer/
 
The offer applies to the first bet you place on any of the featured races (listed on the link above)
•   To qualify for the offer you must find a winner over the odds of 4/1 (5.0).
•   Bets must be placed over the odds of 4/1 (5.0) even after a dead heat or Rule 4 even if you take the early price, the SP (starting price) must be over 4/1 to qualify
•   You are given €50 credit in your account if the next bet looses. You aren't given the €50 credit if the next horse wins again, you only get it after a looser. To make this 100% clear you place a qualifying bet, if it wins your account is credited with your stake amount (up to €50) after you next have a loosing bet. Even if you have 10 winners in a row you don't get credited until you have a looser.
•   Maximum credit is €50. Bet 365 will match your stake up to €50
•   If you place an E/W bet on the win part will count if the horse wins
 
Definitions
SNR Stake not returned
SR
Stake returned
Overlay to return more if your bet looses but less if it wins
Underlay to return more if your bet wins but less if it looses
Stake Forfeit The amount of profit the bookmaker keeps if the bet wins
 
Before I go into the method you must understand the Rule 4 method as in some cases you can no longer qualify for the offer.
 
Rule 4 Deduction (Rule 4C Tattersall )
A rule 4 deduction means a horse has been withdrawn from a race. This can be for any reason including the horse become ill. This means the bookmaker is allowed to correct his book as it was made up from all the original horses in the race. All bets that have been placed will have the following deducted from them. The deduction is taken from your possible winnings. Your stake does not change.
 
Odds of the withdrawn horse   Deduction
1.11 & below (1/9 or shorter)   90p from every
1.12 1.19 (1/8 to 2/11)   85p from every
1.20 1.25 (1/4 to 1/5)   80p from every
1.26 - 1.33 (3/10 - 2/7 )   75p from every
1.33 1.4 (2/5 to 1/3)   70p from every
1.41 1.53 (8/15 to 4/9)   65p from every
1.54 1.62 (8/13 to 4/7)   60p from every
1.63 1.80 (4/5 to 4/60   55p from every
1.81 1.95 (20/21 to 5/6)   50p from every
1.96 2.2 (Evens to 6/5)   45p from every
2.21 2.5 (5/4 to 6/4)   40p from every
2.51 2.75 (13/8 to 7/4)   35p from every
2.76 3.25 (15/8 to 9/4)   30p from every
3.26 4.00 (5/2 to 3/10)   25p from every
4.01 5.00 (10/3 to 4/1)   20p from every
5.01 6.5 (9/2 to 11/2)   15p from every
6.51 10.00 (6/1 to 9/1)   10p from every
10.01 15.00 (10/1 to 14/1)   5p from every
15.00 and above (Over 14/1)   No deductions made
 
Example:-
you placed a 10 bet on a horse at odds of 5.0 (4/1) 30 minutes before the race started. If the horse won you would make a profit of 40. A horse at the odds 2.0 (evens) is withdrawn from the race 20 minutes before the race start. This means that 45p from every 1 of our potential profit is gone. 45P X 40 (potential profit) = 18. This means that if our horse wins we now only get 22 profit (plus 10 stake return.)
 
The maximum deduction for one horse is 75p from every . If there are multiple withdrawals the maximum deduction is 90p from every



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
 
Still qualify for a bonus after a rule 4?
List of odds for this offer and the impact of a rule 4 on them. Enter the following information into the spreadsheet. It is important you use the original odds you took and not odds up to date odds.
 
•   Stake
•   Bet 365 odds you took
•   Deduction is decimal format e.g. 25p deduction would be 0.25
•   Betfair lay odds you took



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
 
If the odds after a rule 4 are lower than 5.0 then you no longer qualify for the offer. You only need to check for rule 4 deductions after you have placed your bet as the bookmaker will have reformed his book. I normally check around 2 minutes before the off.
 
The Method -40 Qualifier, 10 SNR Follow Up
 
Step by step guide
1) Qualifying Bet - Find a close match between Bet 365 odds and Betfair lay odds. You need to back and lay the same horse. This covers all outcomes so you don't loose any money. I would class a close match as 0.4 difference between them. The closer they are together the better!
•   Enter your stake amount (up to €50)
•   Stake forfeit is 40 (in brackets meaning -40)
•   Enter the Betfair lay odds in the lay odds column
•   Enter your Betfair commission in lay comm column (normally 5%)
•   Click in ANY blank column. Your lay stake for Betfair will then appear



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
 
2) If the horse looses you will have made the profit already. Start again with step 1
 
3) Follow Up Bet - If the horse won you will be down around €35. Again find a close match between Betfair and Bet 365. I personally use odds over 9.0 to make extra profit.
•   Enter stake amount (same stake as you used in the qualify bet)
•   Stake forfeit is 10
•   Enter the Betfair lay odds in the lay odds column
•   Enter your Betfair commission in lay comm column (normally 5%)
•   Click in ANY blank column. Your lay stake for Betfair will then appear
 


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

4) If the bet looses return to step 1 and collect up to €50 credit from Bet 365 (dependent on the stakes used)
 
5) If the bet wins repeat step 3
 
Explanation of the method
There are many ways to attack this but I prefer making a little from each race. This is as close to risk free betting as possible! When you have found a winner you won't get credited the €50 until you have had a looser - even if you find 10 winners in a row! We would normally treat this offer as a €50SNR so would use a stake forfeit of 50 (as the stake isn't returned) . As we want to make a profit whatever happens we split this stake forfeit up. The odds 4/1 (5.0) represent a 80% chance of the horse loosing. 80% as a decimal is 0.8 / our stake of 50 = 40. This figure is our stake forfeit for the qualifying bet. We turn this into a minus figure (-40) so we make a profit for every loser we find, but make a loss when we find a winner. This is overlaying the horse to guarantee a profit if it looses. If we entered a stake forfeit for +40 we would make a loss on a looser but profit on a winner. If you look at the spreadsheet you will see the horse winning / loosing figures add up to 40 which was our stake forfeit. When we do find a winner we make a loss of around €35. The lay odds must not exceed the back odds by more than 0.5 as this will spoil our stake forfeiting method and will also result in a loss for both a winner and a looser.
 


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Once we do find a winner we do not get the refund into our accounts until we have found a looser. This money back offer should be treated as a SNR because as we need to underlay the horse incase we keep on finding multiple winners (as we don't get a refund until finding a loser). To calculate the stake forfeit so we make roughly the same profit whatever happens 50 stake total stake forfeit - 40 stake forfeit for qualifying bet = 10 so we enter a stake forfeit of 10. We enter this as a positive stake forfeit incase we keeping on finding winners. If we entered a negative forfeit we would make a loss on another winner and a small profit on a loser. As we get a refund on a loser we make the stake forfeit +10 so we make a profit regardless.
 
Note the spreadsheet below has been edited to help explain the stake forfeit procedure. The actual spreadsheet takes into account if you get a loser you get 50 credit to your account and also the amount lost in the qualifying bet.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Once we have found a loser we get the €50 refund which covers the loss we made in the qualifying bet that won and some extra profit.
 
On the spreadsheet anything that is in brackets means a minus number.
 
Stake size
If you are using stakes smaller than €50 (most people start off with 10 until they are comfortable) then you need to reduce the stake forfeits. If you don't then you will be laying incorrect amounts and WILL loose money. The spread sheet will not work for sums under €10
 
This can easily be calculated using this calculation below. The stake amount is your bet size.
 
Qualifying bet (normally -40 stake forfeit)
-40 / 50 x stake amount (minimum 2) = qualifying bet stake forfeit
 
Follow up bets (10 stake forfeit)
10 / 50 x stake amount = follow up bet stake forfeit
 
The spread sheet calculates this automatically for you.
 
Hints & Tips
When you first start this method use no more than 5 stakes. It takes a while to get use to this as you need to be fairly quick, the odds do move quickly. Once you have chosen your stake use it for the whole day. Do not start using more or less.
 
I would start placing bets around 15 minutes before as these odds can move very fast around 5 10 minutes before the off.
 
Look at the featured race list on Bet 365 and count how many races there are. Times this number by your stake and that is the only money you will need in your account. To calculate the funds needed in Betfair, times your stake by 20 at a minimum. I personally use 30 times by stake.
 
Try your best to find arbs. These are were the Betfair lay odds are lower than the Bet 365 back odds which will mean more profit.
 
Best Odds Guaranteed
If you place a bet before the race starts and the SP (starting price) is higher, Bet 365 will pay out on the higher odds if the horse wins the race. This will occasionally make you a little extra profit!"



Bons Greens Pessoal

Abraço
« Última modificação: 24 de Agosto de 2013, 23:03 por Vegeta83 »
"Você não é derrotado quando perde, você é derrotado quando desiste."
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