Autor Tópico: [Picks A Pagar] Andre Gomes - Sports Picks Handicapper  (Lida 9354 vezes)

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Andre Gomes

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em: 04 de Setembro de 2008, 22:48
Andre Gomes – Sports Picks Handicapper


Eu decidi reabrir o tópico do meu trabalho no Apostaganha e dar a conhecer o trabalho diário que tenho feito no "mundo das apostas". Certamente que grande parte já me conhece e sabe do meu trabalho mas para quem não conhece deixo aqui um resumo do que tem sido o meu percurso:

Eu comecei a frequentar o Apostaganha como um simples membro em que dava opiniões nos jogos da NBA, como gostava (e gosto  :)) da NBA e adorava argumentar e dar opiniões nos jogos rapidamente comecei a fazer picks. Depois disso veio a sequência de picks certas, vitórias nalguns torneios Apostaganha e alguma reputação naquilo que eu fazia.

Depois decidi ter um projecto "premium" em Julho do ano passado com a ajuda e conselho de muitos membros desta magnifica comunidade que me ajudou a que este projecto se concretizasse. Pois bem, no final deste mês de Agosto fez exactamente um ano que tudo começou e os resultados foram os seguintes: 9 meses de lucro em 12 possíveis; mês de Agosto terminou sendo o 6º mês consecutivo de lucro e contabilizando apenas os desportos Americanos, neste ano eu tive mais de 100 unidades de lucro (+10242 EUR), o mesmo significa que apostando para ganhar 100eur em cada pick minha neste momento estaria com 10.242eur de lucro.



Depois desta apresentação deixo aqui alguns pontos chaves não só sobre o meu serviço como também o tratamento que este tópico terá da minha parte:


 :arrow: As picks estarão apenas disponíveis no meu website www.andregomes.com e quem for cliente verá diariamente na zona de membro, eu envio sempre um alerta por email quando coloco as picks de forma a que os clientes possam obter as melhores linhas/odds possíveis

 :arrow: Para garantir a credibilidade e reputação TODAS as minhas picks são monitorizadas pelos melhores serviços do mundo, desta forma os meus resultados jamais serão/são falsos ou alteráveis. Alguns desses monitores: http://www.nationalsportsmonitor.com/, http://www.sports-tipsters.co.uk/andregomes.php ou http://thesportsmonitor.com/

 :arrow: O horizonte temporal deste investimento é a longo prazo e deve ser assim encarado pelos clientes, já a pensar nisso eu disponibilizo os pacotes de "época" a um preço mais apelativo pois quero assegurar-me de que tenham lucro porque infelizmente seja quem for haverá sempre boas e más fases! É algo inevitável e há sempre a possibilidade de um cliente ter adquirido um pacote de curta duração numa má fase.

 :arrow: Relativamente à forma como devem gerir as picks e a conta eu utilizo uma forma muito "específica" de gerir a banca. Não só em termos da confiança que atribuo às picks mas também numa forma de evitar que numa má fase se perca uma grande fatia da nossa banca. Aconselho que leiam o meu artigo: http://andregomes.apostaganha.pt/money-management-mm/

 :arrow: Neste tópico eu vou colocar no dia seguinte as picks premium do dia anterior como também servirá para divulgar free picks que eu possa libertar assim como algumas promoções. Como o tempo muitas vezes não é muito eu não garanto que o faça diariamente e só actualizarei posteriormente.

 :arrow: A unica pessoa responsável deste tópico e que esteja autorizada a responder por mim a qualquer coisa sou EU!

 :arrow: Se houverem duvidas, questões...etc por favor enviem um email para: nbatipster.service@gmail.com que será seguramente a forma mais rápida para que tenham uma resposta, pois como referi, o tempo que tenho é escasso e posso não vir a este tópico as vezes que gostaria, enviando um email pelo menos a garantia será bem melhor pois consulto-o quase diariamente.

 :arrow: Boas Apostas


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« Última modificação: 04 de Setembro de 2008, 22:49 por Andre Gomes »



Vince_Carter

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em: 05 de Setembro de 2008, 08:44
Boa sorte para este "recomeço".  ;)

Como não poderá deixar de ser: vou estar atento a este tópico  ;)



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em: 05 de Setembro de 2008, 10:45
Premium Picks: 04/09


WNBA - 651 Seattle Storm @ 652 Chicago Sky


I tried to delay the most possible this pick, for the simple reason the market is going for the opposite direction of my pick. So I took the decision of my pick and I predicted what would be the tendency of the market, as my followers know very well the importance of an extra point. This game and the only one for today in the WNBA puts Chicago receiving Seattle and it will be a good game in perspective between two teams, who have winning record since the league came back from its break.

The Sky have won their three games after the break and they were underdogs in all three, so this shows how well they have been playing lately. The team defeated New York, Washington and Detroit, shooting respectively 45.2%, 47.5% and 45.8% FG in games where the offense worked very well, as the opponents couldn't stop Chicago's frontcourt, where Fowles and Dupree have been amazing. On the other side, Seattle is 2-1 since the break and this will be their third game in a row on the road. In the previous two road games, the team did well offensively, scoring 83 and 76 points against Altanta and Connecticut.

In theory, looking at these numbers, this game points to an high scoring affair and the market is also thinking in that way. The game opened at 143 points and we can find the line at 144 right now. However I think this game will have few points and there are some key points which take us to that direction. Chicago had 3 days off to rest and this may prejudice the team, as they were coming from three great wins and with a lot of momentum and this pause of 3 days may have killed their great run, especially in the offense. Just remember the Sky are 7-1 Under when they had 3 days or more to rest.

The key matchup of this game will be the frontcourt, where Chicago with Fowles and Dupree have been slaughtering their opponents, not only scoring a lot of points, but also gaining a lot of fouls. Chicago shot 25-40 FT against Detroit and 22-38 FT against Washington! However, Seattle is a very strong team in defending the paint, even without Lauren Jackson. As an example, I can say that in their last game, the frontcourt of Atlanta shot 11-30 (36.6%) FG. And against Connecticut, even though they allowed 80 points, the frontcourt of the Sun shot just 13-35 (37.1%) FG! So, I see Chicago struggling in the paint tonight. Chicago played in a low tempo in those three games to take advantage of their frontcourt players and today I naturally expect them to once again impose a low pace tonight.

Chicago is 9-2 Under after playing an home game this season.

Chicago is 7-1 Under revenging a road loss versus opponent this season.

Chicago is 11-3 Under when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

I expect just the winner of this game to reach the 70 points mark in here. Take the under.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 651/652 Under 144 @1.91 on Bookmaker




NFL Week 1 - 451 Washington Redskins @ 452 New York Giants


Today the NFL starts and so, I would like to wish everybody good luck and a very successful season.

About today's game, the champions Giants will receive the Redskins in a divisional game. In this game, I won't take any side, as honestly any team can cover the spread tonight, so I decided to focus myself on the totals. Before analyzing some key matchups, it's important to talk about the context of this game.

The Giants were the surprising champions of last season, thanks to an excellent defense and it's normal that the regular bettor still has that in mind. After all, in the four post season games they played, they never allowed their opponents to score about than 20 points and the perception of the public is that the same will happen today.

On the other side, the Redskins have a new coach and they come from two preseason games, where they just scored 3 points in each awful game. This general vision of the two teams apparently appoint to a low scoring game. However they are too much details which need to be analyzed and that change completely what was supposed to be a good bet on the under.

The defensive line of the Giants was amazing last season with 58 sacks, but it's necessary to analyze if the team will be capable of doing the same level of performance tonight. Strahan retired and if we add this fact to the season ending injury of Umenyiora, the defensive line of the team doesn't seem to be very impressive, especially when we know that these two played had 22 of the 58 sacks of the team last season, almost 40%! Another important aspect is that Mathias Kiwanuka was adapted to the defensive end position this season and he will need some time to adjust to his new position in the field. These problems in the defensive line of the Giants clearly favor the offense of the Redskins.

The fact that Washington has a new coach this season (Jim Zorn) won't be as problematic as it may seem, after all he was the offensive coordinator of the team last season and the fact that he is a former quarterback and also a former quarterback coach will help the offense of the team. Jason Campbell will be the QB of the team and he will be well backed up by Tod Collins.

The Redskins had two terrible preseason games, but it's necessary to say that in their last game against the Jaguars (3-24), neither of the starting receivers and running corps played in that game: Moss, Randle, Betts and Portis. So, the offensive collapse the team had in that game wasn't surprising. It was in the previous game that the team had really a weak offensive performance, managing only 129 passing yards and allowing 5 sacks to their quarterbacks. But this may have a positive effect for tonight, as it was an huge alert for the team and that surely obligated the team to work hard in practice. A sign of that was that neither of these players played in the following game.

Looking now to the matchup Offense Giants / Defense Redskins. Manning wasn't great at all last season during the regular season, but he stepped it up in the playoffs and surely there will be nobody more motivated than him tonight, after all he managed to shut up all the critics last season and he will enter the field this season with a clean soul. The Giants were very strong in the running the football last season and just average in passing the game. But the Redskins have problems in their defense right now. They lost one of their best players of the defensive line in a preseason game: Jason Taylor, who had 11 sacks last season for the Dolphins and was traded to Washington, in order to replace Phillip Daniels, who also got injured. Without Taylor, the team will have more problems in stopping the powerful running game of the Giants. Besides that the starting cornerbacks of the team Rogers and Springs had injuries recently, especially Springs who is questionable for today and so, the task of the Redskins to stop Plaxico Burress become much harder.

So I see great conditions for the Giants to have a great offensive game today. The defense was impressive last season, but just on the road, where they had to face an hostile crowd and ended up 9-3 Under, if we count the playoff games. However things were much different at home, where they ended up 6-2 Over and 4-1 Over as an home favorite. The Giants are probably going to be better on the offense, but not so good on the defense this season, while the Redskins, even though they aren't at their best form, will take advantage of the defensive line of the Giants not being at the level of last season and that's not being reflected on the lines of the oddmakers.

I'm taking the over on this game, as I expect an high scoring affair for tonight, with the total ending up close to 50 points. Take the over.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 451/452 Over 41 @1.962 on Pinnacle



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Re: [Picks A Pagar] Andre Gomes - Sports Picks Handicapper
« Responder #2 em: 05 de Setembro de 2008, 10:45 »

Dunadan

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em: 05 de Setembro de 2008, 15:03
Alguém é capaz de me explicar como é que se fica a zeros sem marcar um único ensaio ou FG na segunda parte do jogo de abertura da temporada da NFL 2008...? :roll:



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em: 07 de Setembro de 2008, 12:25
WNBA Premium Picks: 05/09


WNBA - 605 Indiana Fever @ 606 Detroit Shock

Detroit faces Indiana tonight, in a game between two teams which are part of one of the biggest rivalries of the league in the past few years. Detroit is the favorite for today, but Indiana comes from two wins in a row, so trying to find an edge on the sides in here is very tough, so I worked on the totals in here.

The line is at 145 which is the highest line of the last 9 games between these two teams and even though both teams come to this game after good scoring games, the truth is that I don't expect that to happen today. Indiana comes from two wins against Atlanta and Washington, when they scored 87 and 79 points, but surely the defense of Detroit is from another level. And the truth is that Indiana is 9-1 Under in road games after scoring 70 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. In the last game against Washington, the defense was the key to the win, as the Fever were down by 27-45 HT, but on the second half, they just allowed 23 points to the Mystics.

"We talked at halftime about our rebounding," Catchings said in a news release from the Fever. "We shifted our focus to defense and rebounding, and we got a bunch of stops in the third quarter."

On the other side, Detroit comes to this game in angry mode, as they lost their last game at Chicago and in overtime. The team showed some problems in defending the paint, but that won't be a problem today, as the forward Planette Pierson will be back to the team, after a suspension of 4 games.

I expect this game to be an authentic catfight, as we are talking about two similar teams, which can stop each other. For example, Deanna Nolan comes to this game in great form, scoring 26 and 18 points in the last two games. But against Indiana, she can't have the same performance and she shot a combined of 7-21 FG and 20 points in the two games this season against the Fever.

Indiana is 16-6 Under in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons and this game is similar to yesterday's game between Chicago and Seattle, where the offenses will struggle and just the winner will reach the 70 points mark. Take the under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 605/606 Under 145 @1.91 on TheGreek



WNBA - 607 Los Angeles Sparks @ 608 San Antonio Silver Stars

This pick can be considered a contrarian pick, as it is against some of the principles a handicapper uses to follow. In normal conditions, this could be a good option for San Antonio, as these two teams faced each other last week and LA won by 58-53. So, this would be a revenge game for SA and especially when they are 11-4 SU at home.

However I think there is a very strong edge for LA in here, which can eliminate the revenge game factor on this game. First of all, SA isn't a team which is known for getting revenge of their opponents, as they are 5-13 ATS revenging a same season loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons. The power of the frontcourt of LA is huge and the team has been slaughtering their opponents right now. Maybe it's because the big three LA came from Beijing with a gold medal, but the truth is that LA seems to be unstoppable right now. In their three games after the Olympic break, they defeated Sacramento by 78-63, San Antonio by 58-53 and Minnesota by 82-58. Surely it isn't a coincidence that LA completely outrebounded their opponents in these games by 39-29, 41-29 and 47-29.

In the game LA defeated SA by 58-53, they outrebounded the Silver Stars by 41-29 and 14-6 off reb, which isn't weird, as LA leads the league in rebound margin with +4.43 rpg and in the only win of SA against the Sparks this season (77-75), it was necessary San Antonio to shoot 48.2% FG, as they were once again outrebounded (15-4 off reb). This factor is very important in these two teams, especially when Leslie and Parker are in great form.

This series reminds me a series of San Antonio this season against Houston, where the Silver Stars were swept, losing all three games, while getting outrebounded by a total of 73-106. today I expect a ballgame, with San Antonio struggling a lot in the paint, not being able to stop the frontcourt of LA, which will be able to get a lot of 2nd chance points and easy layups. Take the Sparks in this game.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 607 Los Angeles Sparks (+4) @1.94 on Pinnacle



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em: 07 de Setembro de 2008, 12:32
NFL Week 1 FREE PICK:

  vs   


NFL Week 1 - 453 Cincinnati Bengals @ 454 Baltimore Ravens



I normally don’t like to go against an home dog in a season opener, which the case of the Ravens on this game, however in normal conditions a SU win of the Bengals should be enough for a cover too, as they are currently listed as a -1,5 road favorite. I think the Bengals will be capable of playing some interesting games this season, however the same can’t be said about the Ravens, as their current situation is really problematic.

The Ravens’ quarterback situation is terrible right now, as rookie Joe Flacco will be the starter today and the truth is that he didn’t win the starting spot due to his merits, but because the other two contenders for this position won’t be able to play today. And if in normal circumsntances a rookie should struggle on his first season (Manning in the Colts was an example of that), the truth is that we are talking about a rookie, who was supposed to stay at the bench for the whole season. Joe Flacco played in the four preseason games, in order to be better prepared for today, but the truth is that the scouts of the Bengals were also at these games, so they had the opportunity to take a look at the offensive players between Flacco and his teammates.

Besides this, the spot of the Ravens isn’t good at all. I actually believe Flacco with a good offense could actually have a good performance today, but the Ravens have one of the worst receiving corps in the league and the retirement of tackle Jonathan Ogden made things even worse for them. Adam Terry, Ben Grubbs, Jason Brown, Marshall Yanda and Jarod Gaither all have three years of NFL experience or less, which makes this team lack experience and be an easy target at the beginning of the season, as they don’t have routines and good coordination with the QB. Things don’t get better for Baltimore in their defensive. Nose tackle Kelly Gregg and free safety Ed Reed, the two most important players on this defense are both hurt and questionable for today. We are talking about the strongest part of the Ravens and without these two players, the defense of the Ravens gets clearly worse.

On the other side, the Bengals finished the season with a 7-9 record, but they weren’t that bad. After all they ended the season with a positive turnover ratio of +1 (14th). QB Carson Palmer é a solid player and we have a clear mismatch in the QB position in this match. Also the Bengals have potential to be dangerous on offense, with Chris Perry and especially Ocho Cinco and Houshmandzadeh, who are both 1000 yard receivers, who will make the task of the Ravens defense really tough. Just remember the Bengals were 7th last season in passing, with 250.8 yards per game. Obviously there have been some off-field concerns about Ocho Cinco, however when the players hit the field, they will quickly forget that. Cincinnati’s defense was just plain bad last season. They were last in sacks, 27th in totals yards allowed and 24th in points allowed, which forced the offense to try and outscore teams every week, but for this game things may not be terrible for the Bengals in this department, as the offense of the Ravens looks terrible right now.

The Bengals have been dominating the head to head, having swept the series last season, covering the spread in both games. The Bengals are actually 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Ravens. The team just won 2 of their 8 road games last season, but one of those wins was at Baltimore by 1-7. I’ll take the Bengals in this game, as they are the better team and with this being played so early in the season, the edge is even higher for the Bengals. Take Cincinnati in here.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 453 Cincinnati Bengals (-1,5) @1.91 on TheGreek



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em: 07 de Setembro de 2008, 12:40
Andre Gomes NFL WEEK 1 Premium Card Sunday

DAILY PASS




First big NFL Sunday of the season and Andre Gomes has 4 big plays for today!!


Most NFL teams make their season debut today and Andre Gomes has prepare a great card, with 4 picks. Besides a free pick, which is a Side Selection on Baltimore vs Cincinnati, Andre has also a Side Selection on Pittsburgh vs Houston, a Total Selection on Atlanta vs Detroit and a Side Selection on Buffalo vs Seattle. Andre has found some interesting informations and match trends for these games and he is confident that once again we are heading to a wonderful day! With Andre, you know you’re getting a quality service with his picks being based on hours of research and his extensive knowledge of the game. Get his picks for today now!

You just can’t miss it, only 15 bucks Daily Package


JUST CLICK HERE



Andre Gomes

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em: 07 de Setembro de 2008, 12:41
Reparem como me tenho esforçado para melhorar o visual de tudo  :lol:

American way stuff  :twisted: :)



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Re: [Picks A Pagar] Andre Gomes - Sports Picks Handicapper
« Responder #7 em: 07 de Setembro de 2008, 12:41 »

Vince_Carter

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em: 07 de Setembro de 2008, 12:50
Reparem como me tenho esforçado para melhorar o visual de tudo  :lol:

American way stuff  :twisted: :)
Só falta o site...algo mais...."clean"  :mrgreen:



Andre Gomes

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em: 09 de Setembro de 2008, 10:44
Premium Picks: 07/09



NFL Week 1 - 459 Houston Texans @ 460 Pittsburgh Steelers

The Texans has been a very well conducted team in the last seasons and they have been improving every year. Houston came from 2-14 in 2005 to 6-10 in 2006 and then to 8-8 last season. I expect them to keep getting better this season and for that to happen, they need stability, which is something extremely important in any organization. As a reward, the Texans will have for the first time in their franchise history a MNF game this season. The team last season had a 2-6 SU and ATS record on the road and maybe that's why they are being so underrated by the oddmakers today, which is in part understandable, however I believe the Texans will improve this season and for that they will need to step it up and I believe they will do it especially in the road games, when I expect them to be much more competitive.

Today they will face the Steelers, who ended last season with a 10-6 record and who were defeated at home by the Jaguars in the postseason by 29-31. The team had an home record of 7-1 SU last season and if we add the fact that the Texans had a 2-6 away record, we quickly come to the conclusion that this is the main motive why Pittsburgh is being favorable by a touchdown in this match. However, looking to the matchups, I don't think such high spread is justifiable in here.

The Steels had the best defense of the league last season and that was the main reason for the positive record of the team, which gave them a ticket to the postseason. However the Texans have an improved offense this season and with good solutions in every part of the field. The offense had an amazing preseason and QB Matt Schaub enters his second season as the starter and he is clearly an emerging star of the league. The running game will improve with Alex Gibbs returning to the active to coach this unit. And if we add a good corp of receivers, this team is loaded with excellent options in the offense: Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones, Andre Davis, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels. Another thing that impressed me this season was how well the offensive line did their task of protecting the quarterback. Houston had also the 3rd best special teams in the league last season, thanks to kick returner Andre Davis and his 30.3 yards per return and 3 TD's.

On the other side, Ben Roethlisberger  will control the offense of the Steelers. He had a great last season with 104.1 of rating and 32 TD with just 11 int. With the strongest part of the team being the rushing game (3rd with 135.2 yards/game last season), the truth is that their powerful offensive line is slowly getting worse and this will be an huge problem for the team if their opponents have weapons to cause them problems in this specific area. Roethlisberger got sacked 53 times in 16 games last season, which shows the problems of the team in this area. Coincidence or not, the scenario doesn't look very good for them this season, as their lost the guard Alan Faneca to the Jets and this makes their offensive line considerably weaker, so the Steelers could once again struggle in this area, where they just averaged 5.3 yards per play last season.

The fact that I said "and this will be an huge problem for the team if their opponents have weapons to cause them problems in this specific area" wasn't just a trivial sentence. The truth is that the defensive line of the Texans puts a lot of pressure on their opponents, even if Dunta Robinson will be out until November. The team has a good numbers of players, who are capable of creating a lot of problems. With Robinson out, rookie CB Fred Bennett entered the starting lineup last season and he was amazing. He started the last 8 games of the season and he led the league by just allowing 4.8 yards per pass thrown on his direction, while breaking up 17 passes. DE Mario Williams had 10 sacks in the final 7 games of the season and with an offensive line of the Steelers struggling, Super Mario can make some real damage today.

So, I think the Texas may be a good dog in here, capable of fighting for the win and even winning the game outright. The fact that we can get 7 points for them makes this a clear valuable bet, as we are in front of a authentic ballgame. Take Houston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 459 Houston Texans (+7) @1.91 on Bookmaker



NFL Week 1 - 463 Detroit Lions @ 464 Atlanta Falcons


When we look at the totals at the beginning of a season, we need to understand that the offenses aren't at their best level, given a lot of teams start from the scratch and they need to time to improve gradually. In fact, the Under went 23-9 in the week 1 and 2 last season and when we have a game, where both teams have a new offensive coach and the offenses don't look impressive, we can have great value on the under. That's exactly what it happens in this game, between the Falcons and the Lions.

The Falcons after a 4-12 season have opted for the hardest decision a team can make: start from scratch! New general manager, new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator and a new rookie quarterback, the #1 overall pick, Matt Ryan. This scenario fits in the philosophy that a team needs time to develop. Mike Smith is a defensive minded coach, who prefers to run the ball, slow down the game and play defense. The fact that the Falcons will be lead by the rookie QB Matt Ryan will make the team use a lot their running game, which will slow down the rhythm of the game. Ryan was known for getting intercepted a lot in college and that's another reason why Atlanta will run a lot this season.

On the other side, the Lions had a new offensive coordinator, Jim Colleto, who likes to put their teams running the football with a lot of physical power. That was visible in the preseason, where the Lions had a 4-0 record and so they don't have motives to change what they have done in the preseason. In fact in those four games, they ran the ball 31 times per game, much different from the 20 times per game they did last season. If we don't count the preseason game where most starters didn't play, the Lions had always more rushing yards than their opponents: +5, +12 and +74, which shows that the team will mostly use this kind of offense.

So both offenses are learning new systems and both systems include a lot of running. The defense of the Lions has also improved a lot since last season, where they were dead last in the league. The secondary unit has now more valuable options and they have 11 defensive lineman on their final roster, in a clear attempt to improve their pass defense. Both teams are in a clear attempts to try to run the football, which will slow down a lot the rhythm of the game and remember the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. I expect this game to finish in the mid 30's in terms of points. Take the under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 463/464 Under 41 @1.91 on Pinnacle



NFL Week 1 - 465 Seattle Seahawks @ 466 Buffalo Bills


The Bills are one of the most underrated teams for this forthcoming season and that's visible in the future bets, where the line for the Bills in terms of total wins this season is just 7,5. However a close look to what this team has done in the past makes us see that the perspectives for this season are good, having in account that the whole team's structure is the same. Also I remember that the Bills ended the season with a 7-9 record, but 9-6-1 ATS and their numbers are impressive, as the Bills were just favored in two games during the whole season. An important stat of Buffalo from last season is that they were 6th in the turnover ratio with +9, just behind the Chargers, Colts, Patriots, Bucs and the Seahawks. Guess what? All these five teams made it to the playoffs.

This is potentially interesting, as Seattle on the other side had the easiest schedule of last season and one of the stats that can prove that is they were just the underdogs in three games last season and still they only managed to have a 10-6 record. And their scenario for this game isn't famous at all. QB Matt Hasselbeck played in only one pre-season game at quarterback he wasn't practicing with his usual receivers. He had a great year last season, but the physical problems didn't allow him to have a good preparation for this season. This is a major worry for Seattle, as their usual receivers won't be available for this game. Veterans Bobby Engram, Deion Branch and Ben Obomanu are injured and in that way, what in normal conditions wouldn't be alarming the fact of Hasselbeck not having done a complete preseason has now become a real problem, as Hasselbeck doesn't have routines with the WR's who will star tomorrow. This is uses to be of the strongest weapons of the team, as they were 8th in passing last season with 247.8 yards/game. The alternative to the passing game won't be viable, as the team will make a rotation between the 3 RB Taylor, Kent and Payne, which won't offer a stable basis to Hasselback.

On the other side, the Bills continue with their base stable and healthy. The QB Trent Edwards has all the conditions to make a good job, as he knows the team's offensive system very well and he will once again have the possibility of make a great pair with Lee Evans. The Bills have the best special teams in the NFL by a wide margin and they will surely use it to gain some advantage. A factor which can be forgotten has to go with the Seahawks traveling 3 different time zones and playing at 1PM eastern. This is a factor usually forgotten by the public, but just remember that in their first trip last season to this time zone, they lost by 21-0 at Pittsburgh. Also in 2006, they only won at Detroit by 3 points, in a ugly 9-6 non-covering win against a team, which ended up to have a 3-13 record season. Seattle is 2-9-1 ATS in their last dozen tries on the road in the Eastern Time Zone and this says it all about the problems of the Seahawks playing so early. Also Holmgren is 1-11 ATS against AFC East division opponents and 4-13 ATS in road games in non-conference games as the coach of Seattle.

I think the Bills is better than the Seahawks right now and most important than that, benefits from some important edges which make the Bills a juicy small home favorite this week. Take Buffalo in here.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 466 Buffalo Bills (-1) @1.91 on TheGreek



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em: 09 de Setembro de 2008, 10:45
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NFL Week 1 - 479 Minnesota Vikings @ 480 Green Bay Packers

The Packers begin today a new dynasty without Favre and they will have a tough game against the Vikings in a division game. A lot in the offseason was said involving Favre and the Packers and since that, Green Bay has become one of the targets to bet against, as without Favre people don't believe the team can maintain last season's level and basically that's the only reason why the Vikings are in a public bet in this MNF game. The line began at -3 and went to -1, however I believe besides this quarterback situation isn't obviously good for the team, the truth is that the Vikings don't live in a better situation right now.

Well, let's stop talking about Favre and start talking about the present of the franchise: Aaron Rodgers. Ignoring what Rodgers can do or not, the truth is that the Packers continue to have the same offense from last season. This talented offensive unit averaged 27.6 points and 6.2 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed just 22.0 ppg and 5.4 yppl), so the Packers won't struggle due to lack of offensive solutions.

Analyzing now what Rodgers may be capable to do or not, I think Rodgers won't struggle as much as people may think. For my conclusion, I can appoint three factors: First of all, Rodgers will start a game for the first time for the Packers, but he is on the team for a long time and he knows his team mates and the offensive system of the team, so the impact would be much bigger if he was a rookie quarterback with no experience on the organization. Also let's not forget the two appearances of Rodgers last season, especially against Dallas. Rodgers looked strong last year when he replaced Favre in the November 29th game at Dallas and was 18-for-26 for 201 yards (7.7 ypp), in a game where the Packers won by 37-27, while being a 7 points underdog.  At last, Rodgers was solid in the preseason, with 68.5% completions (8.1 ypp) and a 103.6 QB rating. Come to this, I believe Rodgers will be fine today and with the strong offense unit of the Packers, I am sure the Vikings will struggle tonight.

Just remember we are talking about Minnesota's pass defense that allowed 64.0% completions and 6.5 yards per pass last year (versus opponents that averaged just 60.5% and 6.4 ypp). The Vikings were dead last in the league last season in this stat. It's true that the Vikings traded for former Kansas City defensive end Jared Allen to improve their pass defense via the rush, but we also should not forget that he will matchup with Chad Clifton, who is one of the better pass-blocking left tackles in the NFL and throughout his career has done a solid job against some of the most talented pass rushers in the game. So, we have a weak defense against the pass, which will struggle a lot and everybody is clearly underrating Rodgers for tonight's game.

"There's no other quarterback in the league who can do what he can do from a disguise standpoint, and just running their offense, and being a leader on the field," Vikings linebacker Ben Leber said. "No question it's going to be a different game. I'm not saying Aaron Rodgers is a bad quarterback, but you have to give Favre his props."

Now I'll talk about the major factor on this game for me and that has to go with the QB situation... of the Vikings! Everybody is talking about what Rodgers will be capable to do or not, but the truth is that we are in front of an offense, which was 28th in the league last year in passing offense. Let's not forget that QB Tarvaris Jackson finished the season with a negative 9-12 TD/INT ratio and missed both games versus Green Bay last year. If the problems weren't enough, Jackson missed the last two preseason games due to a knee injury and he will be limited for today's game on his movements in the field.

The major force of the Bikings is the rushing and the Vikings will rely on RB Adrian Peterson who had an excellent rookie season, however his numbers at the end of the season were progressively becoming worse and Peterson averaged just 58 yards per game during the final four weeks and once again he showed in the preseason that he isn't in good form, with a weak 2,6 yards per carry. The matchup in here will be important, as the Packers were 14th in run defense last season with 99.8 yards/game allowed. The starting defense of the Packers had some difficulties stopping the run in the preseason, but they played without their best run stopper, Ryan Pickett. I made some research about his state and the news are good for him:

"It's surprising. I thought I'd go out there about to die. I've been doing pretty good as far as my wind is concerned and stuff like that. I did a lot of cardio and stuff in the past month, running, so I'm in real good shape." Packers coach Mike McCarthy said Pickett is ready to go Monday, but he doesn't know how much work he'll be able to handle.

With all of this, I think the Packers are being underrated in this game and this plays in our favor. The team went 7-1 at home last season and last season they lost to the eventual champions just in overtime. So, I'll take the Packers in here.

Pick: 3 units (Regular play) on 480 Green Bay Packers (-2,5) @1.95 on TheGreek



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em: 09 de Setembro de 2008, 19:29
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With the MLB’s regular season coming to an end, it’s time to get some money until the season comes to an end. So for tonight, Andre has worked on all games and found two great Side Selections for the evening. But it’s not all for today. Andre has also worked on the WNBA, finding two amazing plays for tonight, with one of them being his WNBA GAME OF THE YEAR! Andre has found some interesting informations and match trends for these games and he is confident that once again we are heading to a wonderful night! With Andre, you know you’re getting a quality service with his picks being based on hours of research and his extensive knowledge of the game. Get his picks for today now!

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WASHINGTON (56 - 88) at NY METS (80 - 63)   
Tuesday, 9/9/2008 7:10 PM JOHN LANNAN (L) vs. OLIVER PEREZ (L)


Sometimes a single game can be so important for a team that it makes that team a great option for a bettor. And I'm talking about the Mets game tonight. Well, I'm one of those people who doesn't believe that history can be repeated and let's go back to the end of last season, where the Mets had a lead of 7 games over the Phillies for the division lead with just 17 games to be played. At that time, the Mets faced at home the Phillies and they had two series against the Nationals yet to be played. Believe it or not, the Mets were swept at home by the Phillies and then lost 5 of their 6 games against the Nationals, ending that span of 17 games with a 5-12 record, which put them out of the postseason.

Now back to this season: the team played with the Phillies and they will now face at home the Nationals, having to face them once again in another series until the end of the regular season. It's basically the same situation from last season. However there were already some differences. The Mets avoided a sweep at home against the Phillies, in the last game of a doubleheader and that was extremely important not only for the standings, but especially from the motivation of the team for the rest of the regular season.

Today the Mets will send the southpaw Olivier Perez, who has been in good form lately, with the team being 5-1 on the last 6 starts of Perez. He has been very consistent lately, giving always the chance of the team to fight for the win. Just remember the Mets are 8-3 on Perez's last 11 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.

On the other side, the Nationals will send the also southpaw John Lannan, who has been alternating quality starts with non-quality outings. The truth is that Lannan hasn't been managing to get 3 consecutive quality starts and to prove that, it's enough to look at his sequence of runs allowed lately: 2-2-5-8-1-2-8. Lannan is also 0-2 when starting against the Mets with an ERA of 5.09 and there is one factor that makes me believe the offense of the Mets will perform well tonight. The team is coming from a doubleheader against the Phillies, where they faced two LHP, so this will be their 3rd game in a row against a LHP, with the team being 16-8 this season in home games vs LHP and 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs LHP.

If in normal conditions, I would already like the spot of the Mets for this game with what this game might mean for the rest of the season, I also see them coming fired up today, not wanting to repeat the disaster it was their series against the Nationals at the end of last season. Take the Mets RL in here.

Pick: 1 unit on 954 New York Mets RL -1,5 @1.99 on Pinnacle




KANSAS CITY (61 - 81) at MINNESOTA (78 - 65)   
Tuesday, 9/9/2008 8:10 PM BRIAN BANNISTER (R) vs. NICK BLACKBURN (R)


For this game we have two teams with different motivations for the rest of the season. The Twins are fighting with the White Sox for a postseason spot, while the Royals can only try to spoil and upset some playoff contender. Curiously the pitchers who will be pitching today will also have different spots, especially in relation to the spots where they use to perform better.

The Twins will send the rookie Nick Blackburn, who isn't bringing luck to the team, as the Twins are 0-5 on Blackburn's last 5 starts. But that doesn't mean he had terrible performances. That exactly the opposite. He had 3 quality starts in this span, but he didn't have the necessary run support to win any of these games and that was the main problem for the Twins. In his last outing against the Blue Jays, the right-hander allowed three runs - two earned - on six hits over 6.2 innings. He walked none, struck out six and threw just 84 pitches in the outing. After three consecutive road starts, he comes back home, where he has been amazing, with 6-3, 2.95 ERA and 1.218 WHIP.

On the other side, the Royals will send Brian Bannister, who has been struggling lately due to his lack of consistence. The best way to prove that is to show his sequence of runs allowed lately: 4-3-4-10-4 on his last 5 outings isn't impressive at all. Besides this, there is also something which needs to be said. Bannister's last 3 outings were at home, where he has a reasonable record, but he is terrible on the road with 2-7 and 9.16 ERA!

The Twins had a day off to prepare for this final span of the regular season, which will be extremely important for them. They are 3-7 on their last 10 games and they were really needing this rest day. The Twins are 13-3 in their last 16 games following an off day and they will use Blackburn today, who will be on his best spot. He has already faced the Royals this season and he allowed just 2 runs in an almost complete game for him. Minnesota is 16-7 against the run line revenging a one run loss to opponent this season and today I expect a great reaction by them. Take the Twins RL in here.

Pick: 1 unit on 974 Minnesota Twins RL -1,5 @2.02 on Pinnacle




WNBA - 607 Indiana Fever @ 608 Minnesota Lynx


I think we are in front of a game where we have two teams with completely different motivations for today and which will make one side have tremendous value, as I really think the spot is excellent for Minnesota and that's why I'll make them as my GOY for this season, grading this play as a triple dime bet!

The situation is the following: both teams know what it's going to happen to them at the end of the regular season. Indiana will be 4th in the Eastern conference and Minny will be out of the postseason. However don't think there is a big difference of quality between these two teams. Minnesota is 14-17 this season and Indiana 15-16, so both teams have similar records this season. It's almost important to say that Minny plays in the much tougher Western conference, with Indiana being 2-10 ATS against Western conference opponents this season, which shows the value of the teams from the West.

This game won't be interesting for Indiana and I'll try to explain the reasons for that. Indiana will make their last game of a road trip of 4 games and this will also be their last road game of the regular season. Besides that, the team will face at home New York, in a really important game for them, as we are talking about a team they may face in the postseason. Let's not forget Indiana played yesterday at Atlanta and plays today in Minnesota, so the spot is terrible for them also because of this factor.

On the other side, the young team of the Lynx is out of the playoffs mostly thanks to a terrible road trip last week, where they lost 4 games in a row against teams from the West.

"This is the end of the longest road trip in the history of life," said rookie Candice Wiggins, who finished with 13 points.

But the team fought in every game and they never lost by more than 8 points. As the team is very young, they will want to show how competitive they can be and so, they will come to this game with more motivation than Indiana.

The Fever is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season and if they feel they can't win today, they won't even try to fought back and they will start preparing next Thursday's game against the Liberty. In my research I found out that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points are 30-6 since 1997 after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games. So with a short spread for the home team in here, I expect a good win for Minny in here. Game of the Year.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play - GAME OF THE YEAR) on 608 Minnesota Lynx (-4,5) @1.91 on TheGreek





WNBA - 611 Seattle Storm @ 612 Sacramento Monarchs


Sacramento receives today Seattle, in a very important game for both teams and which may have implications in the positions of both teams for the playoffs. Seattle is fighting to be the top seed in the West, while Sacramento may secure a playoff spot if they win today. It's curious to see that if the season ended right now, these two teams would face each other again in the first round of the playoffs, so this game will also be important for the future.

Seattle comes to this game after having covered their last 6 ballgame and having won their last 3, while Sacramento has been extremely well at home and that's the main reason for their good record this season. The team is also 11-2 ATS as a favorite this season and this tells us how the team doesn't use to fail in games they should win. The most important factor for me is that Seattle is 3-0 against Sacramento this season and so, we will be in presence of a triple revenge game for Sacramento in here. I found an interesting trend for this game: Home teams are 78-39 with 2 straight losses vs opponent, while being well rested - playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 5 seasons. If you add the fact that Sacramento is 12-4 ATS revenging a loss versus opponent this season, we will realize that the Monarchs can step it up in this kind of situations.

Also Sacramento is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite 3.5 to 6 points this season, having covered their last 4 home games. I expect a lot of problems for Seattle tonight, as without their best player Lauren Jackson, the team depends a lot from its backcourt, which will also have problems for tonight, as the veteran Sheryl Swoopes is injured and won't play tonight. Ticha is an amazing defensive guard, who will make a great job in guarding Storm's currently main star, Sue Bird. I expect a good win from the Monarchs tonight, in a tremendous revenge game for them.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 612 Sacramento Monarchs (-4,5) @1.91 on TheGreek



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em: 10 de Setembro de 2008, 17:23
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Andre is coming from a great day yesterday, where he had a 2-0 sweep on the MLB, besides winning his WNBA GOY without any problem. Now he has worked on all MLB games for today and he has selected 3 wonderful plays, which will put you on the winning side this evening! Andre has found some interesting informations and match trends for these games and he is confident that once again we are heading to a wonderful night! With Andre, you know you’re getting a quality service with his picks being based on hours of research and his extensive knowledge of the game. Get his picks for today now!

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em: 10 de Setembro de 2008, 17:30
MLB Free Pick: 10/09



KANSAS CITY (61 - 82) at MINNESOTA (79 - 65) Wednesday, 9/10/2008 8:10 PM KYLE DAVIES (R) vs. KEVIN SLOWEY (R)

The Twins have to be very happy with their win yesterday, because not only they finished a losing streak of 2 home defeats, but also in just one day, they saw the White Sox losing twice and so, they will very close from the lead on the AL Central.

Today the Twins will send Kevin Slowey, who comes from a rare defeat on his last outing against the Blue Jays. Slowey allowed 3 runs and 10 hits in 5 innings, while the Twins lost by 0-9 in that game. I believe that game was just an accident, as Slowey has been extremely solid lately. Just look at his number of runs allowed on his 5 outings before that game: 2-2-2-1-1. The Twins are 6-1 on Slowey's last 7 home starts and today I expect him to bounce back.

On the other side, the Royals will send Kyle Davies, who after 4 consecutive non-quality starts, where he allowed 6-4-3-3 runs, comes now from a win on his last outing against the A's, where he allowed 1 run and 3 hits in 5 innings. However a deep look on that game allows us to see that he wasn't as impressive as at first sight it may seem, as his P/IP ratio wasn't impressive at all: 20.2! So, in just 5 innings, Davies threw 101 pitches! An extremely high count for just 5 innings. This can be dramatic for him if his opponents are a good team when they have the bases loaded and the Twins are clearly one of those teams.

The Twins have a good chance to build some momentum, as Slowey is a tough guy in bounce back mode and he is 2-0 against Kansas with an ERA of 1.23 and 0.886 WHIP this season and given the fact that KC is just 1-8 in their last 9 road games and Davies hasn't been impressive at all lately, I expect a good win for the Twins today. Take them on the runline today.

Pick: 1 unit on 928 Minnesota Twins RL -1,5 @1.91 on TheGreek

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