Autor Tópico: Betfair passou a apostar....  (Lida 12752 vezes)

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suecos

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em: 08 de Março de 2008, 19:59
Não sei se têm estado a par do que se escreve nas várias secções do forum da betfair mas podem começar pelos topicos do general betting:

Curious about some odd activity at Betfair

Should BETFAIR scrap cross selection matching until...

Betfair skimming - What's the problem?

Nas outras secções como futebol e tenis tambem por lá andam alguns topicos sobre isto.

Basicamente deixaremos de ver, agora mesmo já é impossivel de ver em mercados como o tenis, odds overrounded, ou seja, % inferiores a 100% no lado dos backs ou % superiores do lado dos lays.

Conforme já explicado nos vários topicos por aqui no forum, se encontramos um mercado com % inferiores a 100% no lado dos backs, isso permitiria-nos apostar de forma segura, isto é, criarmos uma arb no mesmo mercado da betfair.

Isto era coisa muito comum de acontecer em mercados ao vivo, como por exemplo o tenis, mas como é obvio duravam pouco tempo, não só pela flutuação grande que as odds estão sujeitas durante o jogo, mas tambem porque alguem as igualava ou cancelava essas odds que permitiam o overround.

Isso deixou de acontecer, parece que nunca mais veremos essas ofertas e conselho a todos, cuidado com as vossas apostas, agora se fizerem algum erro ao submeterem a aposta, podem acontecer que em vez de terem tempo de ver a vossa aposta no mercado, e repararem que fizeram asneira, ela ser automaticamente igualada, e não é igualada por nenhum bot de outro utilizador ou por outro usuario, mas sim PELA PRÓPRIA BETFAIR.


Em Portugal, quem rouba um tostão é um ladrão, quem rouba um milhão é um barão...



Fred

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em: 08 de Março de 2008, 20:08
tao bonitos eles, o que era a betfair o que já é, ainda sou do tempo que era livre e quantas vezes quissesse apostar por hora por exemplo, entre outras coisas...



DrPoe

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em: 09 de Março de 2008, 18:33
Se isto for verdade deixo já aqui o meu descontentamento.

Eles ganham tanto e sem qualquer risco e ainda cima até esses pequenos instantes em que podemos lucrar alguma coisa nos querem tirar.



Forum de Apostas

Re: Betfair passou a apostar....
« Responder #2 em: 09 de Março de 2008, 18:33 »

suecos

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em: 09 de Março de 2008, 20:13
criaram um conceito tão inovador como as apostas p2p (person to person) e incentivaram sempre a criação de bots para poderem apostar automaticamente.
Como já chegaram à conclusão que muitos bots não geram os beneficios esperados e sobrecargam o sistema deles decidiram:

-a partir de abril, cobrar os updates das odds se elas excederem um determinado numero por segundo (tudo bem, aceito)

-agora, tiram vantagem sobre todos os apostadores e eles próprios apostam no mercado.
Não me lembro de ter lido em nenhum lado que eles estavam habilitados a apostar, sempre disseram que eram como um "regulador" entre as ofertas e procuras dos vários apostadores (tal como a CMVM).

Agora, NÃO AVISARAM DE NENHUMA FORMA ESTA ALTERAÇÃO, enquanto que o fizeram com a questão da refresh data a partir de Abril, e como fazem com todas as outras alterações que fazem e pelo que se diz já andam a fazer isto em alguns mercados desde Fevereiro.

Mas estarem a apostar da forma que estão a fazer agora para mim trata-se claramente não só inside trading (que em termos de bolsa normal é crime) mas tambem o proprio regulador apostar que não deveria ser permitido.

Afinal, eles tinham de recuperar o rombo que levaram com a cena do poker, não é?
Aí está a resposta deles
« Última modificação: 09 de Março de 2008, 20:14 por suecos »
Em Portugal, quem rouba um tostão é um ladrão, quem rouba um milhão é um barão...



Dunadan

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em: 09 de Março de 2008, 21:20
A cena do póquer é completamente diferente.

Para isso vão haver acções judiciais para quem não devolveu o dinheiro. ;)

A questão tem mais a ver, pelo que escreveram aqui, para manter a sustentabilidade do sistema.

Ou seja, por causa de uns abusadores no uso dos bots, perdem os restantes utilizadores.

Em relação à betfair apostar em certos mercados, desconheço se está impedida legalmente de o fazer. :?



apostadorfurtivo

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em: 09 de Março de 2008, 22:54
Citar
The day Betfair went from exchange, to exchange player.
from Punt.com - A Blog About Gambling by a Professional Gambler. by Matt

This month's post will make no mention of my own performance.  Instead, it will concentrate on an incredible development in Betfair's exchange software, one that's causing quite a reaction amongst it's customers.  Due to the fairly complicated nature of this, the reaction is slow to gather steam, but is beginning to take off now as more people realise the negative impact this will have on every user of the betting exchange.  This post will be a mix of fact and opinion, I hope to show the exact nature of the issue, dispel the myths and offer some insight into why I believe this is a massive back-step for Betfair.

Firstly, lets begin by saying that when we use a betting exchange, we want to bet with other users.  "Users" in this case are anyone who participates on the exchange as a private user.  No one with inside knowledge of the exchange or uses the exchange hardware or software to their advantage can be classed a user.

A "User" can be an ordinary punter, a professional punter, someone who uses software to make their betting more efficient, including "bots".  They also include anyone who travels to events to negate the television delay.  Basically, anyone who persues betting on the exchange in a method that is open to all users - anyone can program a bot (all be it with some effort) or travel to an event.  Anything I can physically do myself, is fair game.

A thread appeared on the Betfair forum a couple of days ago pointing out some discrepancies in the way bets have been matched.  Soon after, many other users were adding their observations, some of the more sophisticated users said their algorithms experienced changes on Feb 18th.  Betfair had changed their bet matching engine.

What follows are some examples of how this works.  I suggest you test these for yourself to see, be warned, it will cost you to do so.

It's easiest explained in 2 runner markets to begin with.  Outcomes will be called "A" and "B".

The active matching from Betfair occurs when a market goes overbroke.  ie. When you can back or lay both players to make a risk free profit.  This market state is an anomaly, it's caused in error by the users, where the price on each outcome gets out of line with that of the other outcome.  In the past, this situation was open for other users to attempt to profit from, to correct via supply and demand.  Since the change, this money is being captured by Betfair itself, using all the capabilities they have at their disposal as owners of the exchange hardware and software.  The examples,

A:  2.0 // 2.3
B:  1.98 // 2.24

You offer to lay B at 2.2.

The prices to back are now A: 2.0 and B: 2.2.  For those not familiar with 'arbitrage', I suggest you look it up now.

Your 2.2 lay, never reaches market, instead at the point it would normally hit market, it disappears and is matched.

Betfair have matched your bet at the very instant it would normally hit the market.  This has happened because betfair can back your 2.2 and back A at 2.0 and make a risk free profit.

Example 2:

A:  2.0 // 2.1
B:  1.74 // 1.96

You ask to back "B" at 1.84.

The prices to lay the two outcomes are now A: 2.1, B: 1.84.  You can lay both for a risk free profit.

Again, this attempt to back at 1.84 never actually appears on the screen, instead it's matched instantly, with 2.1 layed to close out the profit at the same time, both by Betfair.

There's many aspects to this issue which need expanding upon.  Firstly, lets deal with Betfair's intentions by doing this.

Having spoken extensively to my contacts at Betfair the change was made solely with the intention of improving the customer experience of the exchange.  In their view, the experience of submitting a bet and not having it matched is unsatisfactory.  They believe people want to be matched when they place a bet, and experience disappointment when they aren't.  The profit they are gaining from the process is a little less clear, though I am told they did not go down this route with the intention of profiteering.

My personal opinion on this is that Betfair could be losing sight of what makes exchange betting enjoyable.  In the old days, submitting my own offers was seen as as much fun as getting one matched.  It's what makes it special, the ability to set your own price and wait on getting it matched.  Betfair should not lose sight of this.

Being a realist, I fully expect Betfair to try to make as much profit as they can, they are in business afterall, matching more bets will surely do this for them, a new method of matching bets is probably the way forward for them to do this.

The jury is out personally on whether they did or didn't intend to make money from this, I do find it easy to think that they did however, given this requires some programming, the way it squares off it's profit had to be coded intentionally.

The fact is however that they do seem to be making money from this new matching engine, and for my money this is overstepping the mark as owners of the exchange platform and makers of the rules.  They are using the advantage of their platform to make money from user mistakes.  This in my opinion is not dis-similar to insider trading on a stock exchange.

This is perhaps best explained when you consider that this is being used on "in running" markets as well as ordinary pre-off markets.  These are subject to a 5 second delay on user bets hitting the market.

This delay acts as a safety buffer for those already offering bets in the market, it gives them time to cancel their offers, should a point be won or a goal go in, or anything significant happen.  Betfair's matching engine is not subject to the same delay.

Now you may think, hang on thats fine anyway because our bets are matched or unmatched after our 5 seconds anyway.  Well, yes they are, but now there is another user able to take out all of the errors without that delay.  Bets which were not in error 5 seconds ago can very often be out of line after the 5 second delay.

So what, that's your own fault isn't it ? Partly, but now Betfair don't have the delay themselves, the same safety blanket afforded the people with offers in the market is not afforded the people submitting the bets.  What was a safety net, is now a handicap.

There is an information dark spot during those 5 seconds, where new info comes in, and very often changes things.  That dark spot, the 5 seconds blindness and partial guess work from users is being taken advantage of in a very unfair way.

A more simple explaination is that once your bet hits the market, you normally get some amount of time to cancel your mistake, usually 5 seconds, unless someone was fortunate enough to submit a counter within the 5 seconds it was taking your bet to arrive.  As a user however, you would have a hard time arguing with that, since they didn't know you had bet and at which price, they got lucky and it's fair game.

You might also make similarities with insider trading by examining the timeline of what happens when these bets are matched.  This is maybe best shown if you take two examples, the first is what is happening now, the second is not, but both have the same end result.

1) On a 2-runner market, if I ask to back £500 @ 1.8 on player A, and there is at least £500 available to lay on player B @ 2.0, I get my £500 matched @ 1.8 and BF arbs it against the 2.0, pocketing the difference.

2) On a 2-runner market, if I ask to back £500 @ 1.8 and there is at least £500 available to back the same runner @ 2.0, I get my £500 matched @ 1.8 and BF sweeps the 2.0, then arbs it against my 1.8, pocketing the difference.

The second is a much more obvious example of inside trading.  Lets call it front running, they see what is happening and take advantage before you can, leaving you with a worse price - let me emphasize - this is NOT what is going on, example one is the real occurance.  Yet the outcome of both is exactly the same and when viewed as a time line of events, they are hard to tell apart.  It would be easy to argue that even though it involves a different outcome or a book, this is still a sort of front running in disguise.

The worst thing about all of this is that we are being given our worst price.  This is being justified by saying that we asked for this price and we got it.  Do Betfair really think we would intentionally ask for a price worse than what is on offer ?

There's several ways this can happen to you.  If you are an fairly experienced user of the exchange then this will only happen when you make a blatant error.  Errors for these users take the form of mis clicks, errors of judgement, fast paced market issues.  It's important you know now that if you do make a mistake, you will have no time to cancel that error, the money will be immediately taken from you and you will be told that you got what you asked for.

If you are a novice user, then I feel sorry for you, because half the time you might not realise this is happening to you, the process is so fast and maybe, just maybe, you might be chuffed you got your bet matched.  Please learn about the overround, the book % before you place bets.  If you send a book overbroke, you will have your bet matched, but it will be at a bad price for you and Betfair will have made an instant profit from this mistake.

And this is perhaps why it took so long for users to realise what has been happening.  Because the only way you get to see this is by making a mistake, or being unaware of what you are doing wrong.  Experienced users don't make many mistakes, and the process is so fast even then you could question what you are seeing.

Unsurprising is that Betfair didn't announce that they would be active in their own markets.  There was no consultation with users over this, as there was when they introduced SPs, this in my opinion is a much bigger deal.  It all feels a little covered up, sneaked into action.

Unsurprising also is that many users have likened this to being robbed of their money.  Comparisons with the stock exchange here would see the stock exchange profiting from transactions between customers purely by way of owning the platform that shares were being traded on, trading quicker than anyone else, matching buys and sells wrongly against each other and taking the excess cash.

Indeed, one has to wonder whether Betfair would have got away with this had the FSA been it's regulator.  Betfair says that it consulted the Gambling Commission prior to introducing this new code.  You do have to wonder how good the GC's knowledge of code is, I suspect not good enough.  You can't see Betfair asking the GC if it's ok to use their advantage to match people wrongly so we can take the excess profit.

So how should Betfair rectify this ?  Their Q&A sheet, (which I had to ask for) suggests the current state is temporary and that we will eventually get the best price available from this new technology.  This is of course the correct way of matching more bets, but why on earth have they implemented something that is so obviously wrong?

Betfair has always been about transparency.  The marketplace.  Open markets, supply and demand, users betting with users and ultimately - best price.  With this latest introduction, they are violating pretty much everything they stood for, and alienating a userbase.

Lets look closer at best price.  This is precisely what Betfair should be giving it's customers with this new technology.  If you ask to back at evens when you could lay 1.8 on the other outcome, you must be given the lay of 1.8.  It is very simple to correct, and would result in Betfair fulfilling their aim of more matched bets and in their eyes, a great customer experience.

In the long term, this has to affect the liquidity of Betfair's markets.  Slowly but surely money will be taken out of these markets.  But there is a problem, where do Betfair's customers go?  What's the alternative, where is the competition?  Betdaq seems the closest, but liquidity is dire, and there in lies the problem.. it's chicken and egg.  No liquidity, no customers, no customers = no liquidity.

Betdaq and other exchanges need to seize upon this opportunity, quickly.  Innovative ideas are needed to bring multiples of users across, incentives are required and groups need to come across at the same time.  Their product needs sharpening too, make the interface superior and these customers will be retained.  Perhaps they should seek deals with bot owners and serious liquidity providers.

Betfair's actions are those of a monopoly, they know they have a strong hold over the market, they may even get away with this latest change.  It's proof not only of how a lack of competition affects customers, but how easily a conflict of interests can arise from such a position.  As things stand, all users are today, slightly less likely to do well on Betfair, and certain to lose out on mistakes.



suecos

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em: 10 de Março de 2008, 08:49
não poderia ter sido melhor explicado, obrigado apostadorfurtivo
Em Portugal, quem rouba um tostão é um ladrão, quem rouba um milhão é um barão...



alex2

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em: 12 de Março de 2008, 02:49
    E depois de tanta polémica no fórum da Betfair, aqui está a resposta da própria Betfair:

Betfair Customer Services    11 Mar 17:32
   Betfair is trialling an improved bet matching process. This work is ongoing and will affect a limited but growing number of markets, although horse racing markets are at present not affected. As there has been speculation about what this change involves we wanted to explain what is happening.

Previously we would only attempt to match customer bet requests against unmatched bets of the opposing bet type (backs vs. lays) on the same runner in the same market. That part of the bet matching process remains unchanged. Where there is no opposing bet to match on the same selection, rather than just leaving a customer's bet request unmatched, we will now attempt to match the bet request against unmatched bets on other runners.

For example in addition to matching back bets against lay bets we can from time to time match customer back bet requests across all selections, or customer lay bet requests across all selections. The effect of this change is that customer bet requests will stand a greater chance of being matched.

There will be circumstances where a customer bet request could be matched by either process. In this case priority will always be given to matching in the traditional way, back vs. lay, and the process for matching those bets is identical to the way this was done previously. Where a market is turned in-play and bets are subject to an in-play delay this also remains unaltered. Bets will only become available to be matched once the in-play delay has expired: backs vs. lays first followed by matching across selections where no other match was possible.


Previously if a customer requested a bet that we could not match against an opposing bet (back vs. lay) then that bet could only be matched at the price requested. Because we have not changed the existing matching process of back bets vs. lay bets that remains the case, although we expect to introduce price improvement where possible across selections too in future.


For customers with questions on how this change will affect them we will run a Q&A session on the forum at a date to be announced shortly.



Forum de Apostas

Re: Betfair passou a apostar....
« Responder #7 em: 12 de Março de 2008, 02:49 »

badboytripeiro

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em: 12 de Março de 2008, 12:42
..., although we expect to introduce price improvement where possible across selections too in future.


A questão é que so deveriam introduzir quando isto fosse possível...

Basicamente o que eles fizeram foi.

vamos supor que um jogo de tenis está equilibrado... e que as odds deveriam andar à volta de 2.00 para cada jogador.

VAmos agora supor que há nos 2 backs odds de 2.00.. se eu me enganar, ou ate mesmo quiser meter uma aposta a fazer back a alguem a uma odd de 1,50.. já sei que a betfair me vai dar a melhro odd possivel, neste caso 2.00 e apesar de eu meter odd de 1,50 havendo uma odd de 2.00 no mercado é a odd de 2.00 que eu aposto, ou seja apostei contra outro user, apesar de eu pedir 1,50, havendo 2.00 a betfair corresponde-.nos a 2.00.
Se não houver nada acima de 1,50 a minha aposta aparece do lado do lay e eu tenho tempo de a cancelar, ou se a quiser deixar alguém ira fer lay a 1,50 e a betfair corresponde-nos a ambos a 1,50.

o que eles fazem agora é:  se nao houver backs a 1,50.. eles vao ao lay.. e se lá houver alguem a fazer lay ao outro a 2.00... eles correspondem a nossa aposta a 1,50 e a do gajo do lay a 2.00. Imaginemos que eu aposto 10€... arrisco 10€ para ganhar 5€ o outro caramelo para ganahr os 10€ que eu tou a arriscar nao arrisca apenas os 5€ que eu vou ganahr, mas arrisca 10€ (ficando a betfair com os restantes 5€).

Isto assim deixa de ser completamente P2P (em que o user aposta contra user) passando a ser a betfair a uma plataforma onde o pessoal obtem o preço que pretende, sempre que alguém oeferece o preço pretendido ou um preço mais alto, sendo que a betfair encaixa a diferença.


Concordo plenamente que se nao houver no back, se procure no lay, e que se houver preços que de para fazer match, se faça o match, agora que se faça o match com a mesma odd para ambos e nao ao pior preço para os utilizadores e a betfair a ficar com a diferença.

É exactamente o mesmo que se a betfair de um momento para o outro deixasse de oferecer o melhor preço possivel, e nos metemos back a 1,50 e apesar de haver back a 2.00 disponivel a betfair nos correspondesse a 1,50 e cobrasse ao outro o 2,00.
É simplesmente absurdo e enquanto eles nao conseguirem corresponder ao melhor preço disponivel nas cross selections, nao deveria haver simplesmente cross selections.



Dunadan

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em: 12 de Março de 2008, 16:04
Se eles não mudarem, das duas uma, ou há pessoal que vira punter, ou abandona certos mercados ou vira-se para outras bolsas...



JohnAbruzzi

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em: 12 de Março de 2008, 16:44
Alguem por favor me corrija se estiver errado:

Citar:

A:  2.0 // 2.3
B:  1.98 // 2.24

You offer to lay B at 2.2.

The prices to back are now A: 2.0 and B: 2.2.  For those not familiar with 'arbitrage', I suggest you look it up now.

Your 2.2 lay, never reaches market, instead at the point it would normally hit market, it disappears and is matched.

Betfair have matched your bet at the very instant it would normally hit the market.  This has happened because Betfair can back your 2.2 and back A at 2.0 and make a risk free profit.


Isto quer dizer que quando houver uma discrepancia maior entre a odd do back e do lay como é o caso (back 1.98 .ay 2.24) se fizermos lay a 2.22 a odd nunca atinge o lado do back, certo???!!!

A Betfair corresponde a odd no mesmo instante?? É isso que está acontecer?



badboytripeiro

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em: 12 de Março de 2008, 16:56
yep, mas o problema principal na minha opinião nao é esse...

é que o teu lay a 2,20 é matched com um back no jogador A a 2,00..

quando o que deveria acontecer é que se tu fazes lay a 2,20 no jogador B, mas havendo um back para o A a 2.00 o teu lay deveria ser ocrrespondido a 2.00 e nao a 2,20..

ou seja na practica a betfair apostou no jogador B a 2,20 (com o teu lay) e aposta no jogador A à odd de 2.00... encaixando a diferença.





JohnAbruzzi

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em: 12 de Março de 2008, 16:59
Exacto mas isso acontece em todos os mercados?!!

Até naqueles onde ainda nem tem odds para lays disponiveis???



Dunadan

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em: 12 de Março de 2008, 17:03
Só em alguns, mas não disseram quais...



JohnAbruzzi

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em: 12 de Março de 2008, 17:09
Parece-me que isto abre imensas opçoes para arbitragens!!!
Varias casas com alguns dias de antecedencia dos jogos tem odds superiores à Betfair no entanto em mercados pouco correspondidos, que faz com que a odd do lay possa nao ser correspondida. Se a Betfair corresponde as odds nao permitindo que ela chegue ao lado do back... :doido:




 


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